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Nous générons de la valeur et protégeons le capital grâce à des investissements à long terme sur les marchés mondiaux, soutenus par des décennies d'expertise.
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Le partenariat consultatif du Groupe ARI vise à générer des rendements constants et substantiels sur le long terme. Nos stratégies d’actions mondiales se concentrent sur l’investissement dans des leaders mondialement reconnus et des puissances régionales dotés de modèles économiques durables.

Produits et stratégies


Plus de 75 ans

Expérience combinée en gestion d'investissements

35

Pays avec des opportunités croissantes

5

Langues prises en charge pour notre clientèle diversifiée

Plus d'un milliard de dollars

Titres négociés depuis la création pour le compte de fonds de pension et de family offices

Nouvelles


14 févr., 2024
In the grand economic competition of 2023, the markets were not short of thoroughbreds and dark horses, each vying for a position in the race of valuation expansion. Looking into 2024, let's take our binoculars to the track and review the strides and stumbles of the past year while casting an eye on the laps ahead. The Final Quarter Furlong: A Surprising Turn in Valuations As the 2023 financial race entered its final quarter, valuations broke away from the pack, marking a noticeable expansion. This broad-based movement sprinted past the more predictable cyclical trends of earlier in 2023. The earlier parts of the year saw bond yields surging like stallions out of the gate, but Q4 brought a change in the wind, a transition from the rapid rate hikes to a crowd-pleasing anticipation of rate cuts, allowing yields to ease into a more graceful canter. The US economy, managed to slow without stumbling, maintaining a non-recessive stride despite the looming uncertainty of an election race rife with headline risks. Europe and China: Diverging Tracks Europe, however, seemed to falter, showing early signs of recessionary fatigue as it lagged behind in the global relay. In contrast, China, while not breaking any speed records, continued at a relatively higher pace, its economic growth sustained, albeit with a noticeable slowdown. US Consumer Spending: The Stamina of the Race Accounting for a significant 68% of the US GDP, consumer spending has been the stamina of the economic race. Despite a slowdown in services and the depletion of covid savings, the top 20% of spenders continued to uphold two-thirds of the consumer spending, with real wage growth turning positive in May 2023. The demographic support remains a positive, indicating enduring opportunities in consumer segments with inherent growth potential—luxury goods and travel services have proven resilient against the headwinds of inflation. Rest of the World: The Economic Steeds of Q4-23 Relative terms is what matters for decision makers globally. In the final quarter of 2023, China's economy began to regain its pace, spurred by increased demand for services, resilient manufacturing investment, and public infrastructure stimulus. However, the shadow of weak consumer confidence loomed over its recovery. In stark contrast stood the Indian economy, which exhibited robust growth driven by infrastructure, manufacturing, and industrial production, signaling a healthy investment climate supported by a surge of foreign direct investment. MENA entrepreneur liquidity which had been contained over the past few years, shows signs of releasing. With markets and wealth effect easing in developed markets bodes well for the releasing of that liquidity to be able to be put back into markets. Risks on the Horizon: The Hurdles Ahead Investors have their eyes set on a series of risks that could alter the race's outcome. The potential decline in corporate profitability, liquidity risks from central bank actions, and the far-reaching effects of aggressive monetary tightening stand as formidable hurdles. The extent of recovery in consumer spending, the overall weakening of global economic growth, and the geopolitical events that continue to unfold are all factors that could sway the markets. The Integration of AI: The Efficiency Jockey The integration of artificial intelligence across healthcare, finance, and creative industries marked 2023 as the year where the efficiency jockey took the reins. AI's transformative capabilities galvanized the markets, driving personalization, decision-making, and problem-solving to new heights and laying the groundwork for long-term growth and innovation. As we look to the stretch ahead, AI's potential appears boundless, promising to revolutionize various sectors while addressing the challenges related to ethics, security, and workforce impacts. The Global EV Market: A China Electrifying Sprint China continued to dominate the Global EV market, leading the pack with 60% of global electric car sales. Hot on its heels were Europe and the United States, with the latter celebrating a victory lap for surpassing 1 million EV sales in 2023—a notable feat signaling a substantial market shift. National policies and incentives, coupled with high oil prices, have spurred sales further, positioning the global EV market on track to meet or outpace even the most ambitious net-zero timelines. The emergence of India, Thailand, and Indonesia as significant players in the EV space has further charged the trend towards electrification. Portfolio Positioning: Securing the Lead Decanting all this there remains revealing investment opportunities with secular growth in various niche sectors. From Japanese regional business models to animal health, from structural demographic dynamics to selective luxury goods makers, from global air travel to e-commerce, AI, and leaders in the EV supply chain, disciplined investments have shown promise. In the 2024 global economic race, outsmarting fear is key to securing outsized returns and capital preservation, much like taming a formidable black horse. Investors must stay composed and alert, as the unpredictable 'black horses' of the market with endurance and foresight.
17 oct., 2023
By Jonathan Mzengeza The Russia-Ukraine war has brought globalization in distributed industrial supply chains to the forefront. Semiconductor equipment manufacturers have built very distributed supply chains all over the world. Justifiably much of the focus has been on the war’s impact on oil, however we believe its impact on semiconductors is likely to become significant. The challenges surrounding global semiconductor equipment supply chains, still trying to recover from the impact of Covid-19, will begin to intensify because of the war. These disruptions impact industries reliant on chips such as the automotive sector, which can’t build enough vehicles to satisfy current demand levels. Prices for both new and used car prices are at record highs. The semiconductor industry has reached a critical point. The return of strong supply chains will require the transition to more localized production in the U.S. and Western Europe. According to TrendForce , Taiwan accounts for 65% of the global foundry market share and Taiwan/South Korea/China account for a combined 88% of foundry market share based on revenue. The surge in gas prices underscores how serious the semiconductor issue could become. According to IEA , Russia accounts for 11.4% of the global oil supply, which makes it the third largest supplier globally. Consider that chips produced in Asia make up a much larger percentage of the global total than the percentage of oil produced in Russia; consequently, the impact on chip prices if the U.S. and Western Europe do not increase production could be unprecedented. In fact, Intel [Nasdaq: INTC] CEO Pat Gelsinger told the Silicon Valley Business Journal that in a technological age, semiconductors have become “the new oil,” and encourages the U.S. government to subsidize efforts “to produce more” of them here in the U.S., to not be vulnerable to supply “disruptions” in China and elsewhere in Asia. Micron Technology [Nasdaq: MU] CEO Sanjay Mehrotra recently told Nikkei Asia that it’s “extremely important” that the U.S. pass “the so-called CHIPS Act to support semiconductor research and manufacturing” and “catch up” in semiconductor manufacturing capability. Recognizing the critical role the U.S. semiconductor industry plays in America’s future, in 2021 Congress enacted the CHIPS for America Act to promote domestic production. Similarly, in early 2022 the EU implemented the European Chips Act . However even with this government support, the barriers to domestic production are high. Semiconductor companies need to invest $10 billion and two to three years to build a leading-edge node fab from zero to completion. The main beneficiaries of this increased investment in localized domestic production are the suppliers of the equipment required to manufacture semiconductor chips. These companies are called Wafer Fabrication Equipment vendors and the top five companies are: ASML [Nasdaq: ASML] Applied Materials [Nasdaq: AMAT] KLA Corporation [Nasdaq: KLAC] Lam Research Corporation [Nasdaq: LRCX] Tokyo Electron [8035.T] Of these five, ASML is in a leading position because of its strong monopoly position in EUV lithography systems, which are used to print the most intricate layers of a chip. ARI currently holds positions in ASML on behalf of its clients. Additionally, we have exposure to leading edge semiconductor manufacturer, TSMC. While increased domestic production is likely to be a significant job creator in the U.S. and the UK, we should note that the catalyst for the Chips Acts was the external geopolitical forces along with the pandemic – not specifically a push for job creation. Interestingly, both Democrats and Republicans are in favor of the idea. So, it’s no surprise that semiconductor CEOs support the idea of the government giving them $52 billion in subsidies. Globally, we can expect to see more semiconductor manufacturing to become localized in the U.S. and Western Europe instead of distributed the way it is now with a disproportionately large percentage in Southeast Asia and China. What the market has learned is that it’s not just about supply, it’s also importantly about the security of that supply. Countries that strive to have secure and reliable sources of energy in good and bad times must invest in internal manufacturing capacity and/or trade with countries with stronger diplomatic ties. At Applied Research Investments, we continue to advise clients to focus on secular growth for the next three to five years while actively managing risk. Jonathan Mzengeza serves as portfolio manager at Applied Research Investments. For more than a decade, Mzengeza has been a leader in investment management, bringing deep experience in guiding portfolio management and stock selection across multiple global equity mandates. Before joining Applied Research, Jonathan spent a decade at CIBC, where he occupied various positions, most recently serving as lead portfolio manager of global equity funds. Throughout his investment career, Jonathan analyzed Technology and Consumer industries as well as financial services, communications, and REITs. He had also worked as an analyst at Chubb Insurance Company, where he focused on business and system technology needs and supported production and development environments including design documentation and implementation plans. He began his career as a network analyst at Nortech Efficient Business Solutions. Jonathan holds a Bachelor of Science degree in electrical and computer engineering from the University of Capetown, where he graduated with honors and an MBA in Investment Management from Concordia University’s John Molson School of Business. Jonathan is a CFA Charterholder and a member of the CFA Society.
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